Suppose Opie is out in October, Howie doesn't re-sign in Dec 2015...SiriusXM is left with nothing but B-level shows in the talk radio world. What will Sirius do?

5  2014-07-11 by Earguy

21 comments

I'd be surprised if Satellite radio is still around in 5 years

Their big appeal is sports talk- Mad Dog, Fantasy Sports Radio (which actually has phenomenal baseball analysts), NFL Radio and all NFL games broadcast, ESPN, etc. The music channels are great in theory but they're so damn repetitive. They all pick like twenty obscure songs and beat them into the ground

My guess is that they'll start trying to get podcasters on. I'm sure there are some big podcasters that are willing to try and make the jump if they get OnA money.

in that case Sirius will provide very poor quality content

Dennis Falcone will run 5 channels simultaneously.

Commercials will be condensed to 45 minute blocks every 2 hours.

Riley Martin will take over as Head of Programming.

Stern will end up staying even if it's 1 show a week

According to stock analysts Sirius will do nothing because their "shock jocks" have been a declining profit force for them. In the beginning of XM and Sirius O&A and Howard were huge earners. Now, Sports talk and music are their big earners apparently.

Sirius gets a lot of money from businesses or malls still. They'll stick around.

I dunno.. Isn't HD Radio still around somehow?

It's free and usually just an ipod playing so it's cheap to produce.

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Play music and refocus on people who spend a lot of time in vehicles, usually without a lot of radio or even cellular data options - truckers. Don't discount the amount of money they probably get from car manufacturers as well for integrating and licensing. They may not be the same "powerhouse" they are now, but they won't just fall out of the sky.

While that is the most likely case for this company, never underestimate how easy it is for a business to fall out of the sky, even if they stick around long after their death. Sears, Montgomery Ward, RCA, are just a few mammoth companies that failed to adapt to changing times, often within a decade. One of the great benefits of true capitalism is that you don't stick around, now matter how big you were, at least people still desire what you have in the same way.

Read up on Clear Channel, and you'll see how this story ends:

  • they'll borrow a shit ton of money and give it to executives and top talent (Howard, O&A, Eminem, etc)
  • eventually they'll run the business into the ground, and all the smart folks will get out while the getting's good (cough cough E-Lo )
  • The dying carcass will limp along for ten years, hemorrhaging money the whole time

The end game is that it gets gobbled up by another company.

The reason that it always ends the same is because companies are always trying to find new ways to grow, and buying up another company is a surefire way to do it. But Sirius isn't an attractive acquisition target until it's really really really cheap... Which might take another five years.

(confession : used to work for a company that had this done to them.)

the end game is they take over the frequencies SiriusXM uses which are worth something like 2 billion on their own.

Satellite radio has the problem of podcasts for talk radio and multiple free sources of music.

I think Stern will stay they treat him like a King and he barely has to work

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When does poor Ron's contract run out?

I don't remember off hand because I was never a RnF fan but I do know it was discussed back in Jan when Fez had his on-air meltdowns and they had the meeting with Tim Sabean.

continue their terrible business model as older people die out and smart phone users turn to better alternative

What would Jesus do?