We should have a Sirius XM stock drop watch

0  2014-07-08 by txpandorasbox

I saw someone mention they had lost 2% of something or some rather.

I'd be very interested if someone could keep an eye out and update on the changes in subscribers, ratings, stock, etc falling or rising for the next few months.

Not sure if there's even a public source to find those numbers but I can't be the only one this curious.

7 comments

so based on today's close, here is the option play (all details for educational purposes only...)

Dec 20, 2014 PUT options at 3.50 strike currently trading at 0.27. A contract represents 100 shares, so the cost of one contract is 27 dollars and gives you the right to sell 100 shares at 3.50 no matter what the actual price of the stock is. Doesn't matter if you don't own the shares, someone else does and will buy your contract in order to sell his/her shares for 3.50.

So, let's say you have a brokerage account where commissions on options are 20 bucks + 1 dollar per contract, you could put in an order for 25 contracts at a price of 0.27 and your total cost would be 720.00 -- options = 25 * .27 * 100 = 675; commission = 20 + (1 * 25) = 45.

Assuming the price dips to 3.00 per share between now and December 20, 2014, the 25 contracts would have a value of 1,250 = [25 contact * 100 shares per contract * (3.50 strike - 3.00 mkt price)]. Subtract out another 45 dollars in commissions and your proceeds are 1,205. Net gain is 485 = [1,250 implied value - 45 commission - 720 option cost].

You will likely not be able to sell the PUTs at 0.50 when the stock is trading at 3.00 so actual gains will be slightly less, but it is a solid play either way.

For those who are interested, the stock would have to stay above 3.19 for the option trade to net you nothing. Below are some potential outcomes at .05 intervals.

Dec 19 Price | % Change from Today | Net Gain / (Loss)

$3.40 +0.89% $ (515.00)

$3.35 -0.59% $ (390.00)

$3.30 -2.08% $ (265.00)

$3.25 -3.56% $ (140.00)

$3.20 -5.04% $ (15.00)

$3.15 -6.53% $ 110.00

$3.10 -8.01% $ 235.00

$3.05 -9.50% $ 360.00

$3.00 -10.98% $ 485.00

$2.95 -12.46% $ 610.00

$2.90 -13.95% $ 735.00

$2.85 -15.43% $ 860.00

$2.80 -16.91% $ 985.00

$2.75 -18.40% $1,110.00

Ironically people are blaming it on Ant's tweets, and not the fact that thousands of subscribers are cancelling and Sirius' reputation is in the gutter.

Well on July 3rd stock was up at the end of trading, so if that's an argument, then I guess people enjoyed Ant's tweets.

It's a $3 stock. One of Ted's emporiums is worth more at this point.

yeah, and it's ALWAYS been a $3.xx stock too...

INCORRECT VIGILANTEFRANZ1, TED'S EMPORIUMS ARE MUCH EMPTIER THAN THEY USED TO BE. THEY SAY I CAN SELL ONE FOR TWO DOLLARS.