Some borderline useful facts about SiriusXM, OnA subscriber numbers, and why cancelling your subscription probably won't change anything.

0  2014-07-07 by [deleted]

Definitely still cancel your subscription though.

According to SiriusXM's annual reports this happened in 2013:

SiriusXM had 25.6 million subscribers

  • Total revenue $3.8 billion
  • Revenue from subscriptions was $3.2 billion ($128 per subscriber)
  • SiriusXM spent $290 million on Programming and Content

Now here is where the assumptions start:

  • Howard Stern has roughly 3.07 million regular listeners (12% of subscribers), according to a January 2014 survey and a securities analyst
  • If Howard Stern leaves SiriusXM roughly 1.28 million subscribers will leave as well (according to the same survey)
  • Opie and Anthony have consistently had a quarter to a third of Stern's ratings throughout their careers (according to an arbitron release and something I can't seem to find right now.)

So if a those numbers apply to OnA then:

  • OnA have between 1.024 and 0.768 million listeners (a third or quarter of Howard's estimated listeners)
  • Between 427,000 and 320,000 listeners will cancel due to the firing (assuming the same third to a quarter of Howard listeners that would leave - a bit different because there are more parts to the OnA channel but I digress)
  • If the channel costs $9 million a year (assuming Opie and Ant make $3 million each + whatever for Jimmy, and staff, etc.) that would be roughly 3% of total spending on Programming and Content, this 3% number would match up pretty well with their overall percentage of regular listeners

These cancellations would cause:

  • $55 million of lost revenue at the high end and about $41 million at the low end. Between 1.7% and 1.3% of revenue from subscribers
  • Loss of between 1.4% and 1.1% of total revenue

Some more fun facts:

  • OnA each made roughly $3 million in 2004 (according to an interview with Alan Colmes) which would be $3.62 million per year in 2014 dollars however;
  • They were offered significantly less in 2010 (according to orbitcast sources)

I realize that some of this info is spotty at best so feel free to add better information if you can find it

8 comments

4  PCchongor 2014-07-07

PROBLEM: The market is currently at the apex of its longest upward run in human history. Pretty much everyone is looking to squeeze out the last bit of gains from their stocks and then are ready to flee the ever loving fuck over to t-bills when the inevitable equity shitstorm hits. If next quarter Sirius shows even just the slightest dip in not just net subscription gains, but net subscription gains in the one area (uncensored talk radio) that they actually have a leg up against the looming competitive buttfuck that is Apple, Google, and Amazon streaming music, then you can kiss further positive stock valuations goodbye until new rumblings of a buyout from Liberty Media help pump things back up to a nice and inflated level for Hoo Hoo to hammer back the fuck down once he finally announces his retirement from radio next year.

Short term, the cancelled subscriptions might not mean shit, but long term SiriusXM just gargled their own balls on this one.

1  [deleted] 2014-07-07

[deleted]

0  PCchongor 2014-07-07

Last reported short interest on SIRI is also at around 11%, which is just about at the right level where further negative earnings information can form a feedback loop that helps drive the price down even further when the time finally comes.

And even though SiriusXM revenue might be going up, expenses are currently rising out the asshole when it comes to getting SiriusXM radios installed at the factory level, and GM, one of their biggest partner manufacturers, isn't exactly in the highest of demand following their whole "sorry for killing your whole fucking family and paralyzing your dog on our burning wheels of death" kerfuffle. The only subscriber growth Sirius is currently experiencing is in OEM used car radio installations, but that market is just as open to get sonically violated by Google or Apple whenever they see it fit to finally flick down their collective zippers.

Sirius has been partying like its 2005 for nearly a decade now, and their egregious lack of innovation or novelty within the fields of radio and music streaming has completely put them at the mercy of the Mergers and Acquisitions departments of looming competitors so large that just a tenth of their fiscal year tax returns would be more than enough to convince Scott Greenstein to publicly burn an effigy of Martin Luther King Jr. on MSNBC and then goose step all the way to the Compound to help co-host Anthony's new "They're Not Human" podcast.

3  PorcelainStew 2014-07-07

Don't forget about people like this guy. It's not just about revenue, it's about stock too.

1  [deleted] 2014-07-07

[deleted]

3  maynardsabeast 2014-07-07

In the end though the one thing they are famous for and sets them apart from the competition is now in jeaprody and also that's a pretty huge number of potential cancellations. Definitely nothing to scoff at.and I bet those o&a #s compared to Sterns are much different nowadays with stern going soft and taking so many days off. O&A also have a much more passionate fanbase so a higher % would leave compared to sterns

1  RyanC22434 2014-07-07

Those are still high numbers to tell your stock holders you lost, and wait till Howie leaves and it will be soon.

-4  LizardKingRumsfeld 2014-07-07

You forgot to cap your parenthesee after 'I can't find right now.'

-9  schmoegreene 2014-07-07

This user has to be the Opster.

  1. No one would try to get us to keep SXM, UNLESS they were starting "The Opie Show" on "The Opie Channel" next Tuesday.

  2. Who else could pull of that much math? the Opster has always been a math guy.

1  [deleted] 2014-07-07

[deleted]

1  schmoegreene 2014-07-07

It was a joke that went over like a Zimbabwe helicopter.

1  [deleted] 2014-07-07

[deleted]